Fitting different nonlinear growth models to oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) yield along the crop lifecycle, Costa Rica
Main Article Content
Abstract
This research focused on the oil palm crop in the southern zone of Costa Rica due to the high impact it generates on the economic development of Costa Rican farmers. The oil palm yield growth curve was adjusted along the crop life cycle, and the forecast efficiency of eight nonlinear growth models was compared based on different statistical criteria and normality tests. Then the Box-Cox transformation method was applied to correct the absence of normality. The applied nonlinear models were adequate to forecast oil palm yield, and the Morgan-Mercer-Flodin model produced the best fit statistics. This research constitutes an input for plantation renovation practices, as well as the economic valuation of crops that may be pledged as collaterals.
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Los autores conservan los derechos de autor y ceden a la revista el derecho de la primera publicación y pueda editarlo, reproducirlo, distribuirlo, exhibirlo y comunicarlo en el país y en el extranjero mediante medios impresos y electrónicos. Asimismo, asumen el compromiso sobre cualquier litigio o reclamación relacionada con derechos de propiedad intelectual, exonerando de responsabilidad a la Editorial Tecnológica de Costa Rica. Además, se establece que los autores pueden realizar otros acuerdos contractuales independientes y adicionales para la distribución no exclusiva de la versión del artículo publicado en esta revista (p. ej., incluirlo en un repositorio institucional o publicarlo en un libro) siempre que indiquen claramente que el trabajo se publicó por primera vez en esta revista.
References
T. Mielke, «Global price outlook of palm oil and other vegetable oils». ISTA Mielke GmbH, 2020 [En línea]. Disponible en: https://www.oilworld.biz/t/publications/monthly.
A. González-Cárdenas, «La agroindustria de la palma de aceite en América», Rev. Palmas, vol. 37, n.o 2, pp. 215-228, 2016.
INEC, «VI Censo Nacional Agropecuario. Resultados generales». INEC, 2015 [En línea]. Disponible en: INEC. http://www.inec.go.cr/censos/censo-agropecuario-2014.
S. Mora e Y. Quirós, Boletín Estadístico Agropecuario N.°29: Serie Cronológica 2015-2018, SEPSA, San José, Costa Rica, 29, 2019 [En línea]. Disponible en: http://www.sepsa.go.cr/productos.html.
M. Mosquera y E. García, «Impacto social de la agroindustria de palma de aceite», Rev. Palmas, vol. 26, n.o 2, pp. 11-19, 2005.
B. Algieri, «Price volatility, speculation and excessive speculation in commodity markets: Sheep or shepherd behaviour?», Econstor, n.o 166, pp. 1-37, 2012.
T. Correa, Palma aceitera: entre la «flecha seca» y la variación de precios internacionales. San José, Costa Rica: INFOCOOP, 2015.
G. A. Torres et al., «Bur rot caused by Phytophthora palmivora: A destructive emerging disease of oil palm,» Phytopathology, n.o 106, pp. 320-329, 2016. doi: https://doi.org/10.1094/PHYTO-09-15-0243-RVW.
CANAPALMA, «Precio de fruta de palma aceitera: fruta entregada», Boletín, diciembre 2019, 2019 [En línea]. Disponible en: http://www.canapalma.cr/.
A. Khamis et al., «Nonlinear growth models for modeling oil palm yield growth,» Journal Math. Stat., vol. 85, pp. 84-90, 2005. doi: https://doi.org/10.3844/jmssp.2005.225.233.
F. Köhn et al., «Modeling the growth of the Goettingen minipig,» J. Anim. Sci., vol. 85, pp. 84-90, 2007. doi: https://doi.org/10.2527/jas.2006-271.
A. Sabbioni et al., «Effect of sex and season of birth on Gompertz growth curve parameters in “Nero di Parma” pigs,» J. Anim. Sci., vol. 8, n.o 4, pp. 719-729, 2009. doi: https://doi.org/10.4081/ijas.2009.719.
J. A. Monte et al., «Growth analysis and yield of tomato crop under different irrigation depths,» Rev. Bras. Eng. Agríc. E. Ambient., vol. 17, n.o 9, pp. 926-93, 2013. doi: https://doi.org/10.1590/S1415-43662013000900003.
Prajneshu and K. P. Chandran, «Computation of compound growth rates in agriculture: Revisited,» Agric. Econ. Res. Rev., vol. 18, pp. 317-324, 2005. doi: https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.58480.
A. Rajarathinam and B. Vinoth, «Statistical modeling for wheat (Triticum aestivum) crop production,» Int. J. Stat. Appl., vol. 2, n.o 4, pp. 40-46, 2012. doi: https://doi.org/10.5923/j.statistics.20120204.03.
S. Panwar et al., «Forecasting of growth rates of wheat yield of Uttar Pradesh through non-linear growth models,» Indian J. Agrocultural Sci., vol. 84, n.o 7, pp. 856-859, 2014.
S. Pal and D. Mazumdar, «Forecasting groundnut production of India using nonlinear growth models,» J. Crop Weed, vol. 11, n.o Special Issue, pp. 67-70, 2015.
R. H. V. Corley, J. J. Hardon, and G. Y. Tan, «Analysis of growth of the oil palm (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.) I. Estimation of growth parameters and application in breending,» Euphytica, vol. 20, pp. 307-315, 1971. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00056093.
L. S. Woittiez et al., «Yield gaps in oil palm: A quantitative review of contributing factors,» Eur. J. Agron., vol. 83, pp. 57-77, 2017. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2016.11.002.
L. von Bertalanffy, «A quantitative theory of organic growth (Inquiries on growth laws, II),» Hum. Biol., vol. 10, n.o 2, pp. 181-213, 1938.
R. Juárez-Romero y R. Searcy-Bernal, «Von Bertalanffy growth model for the pismo clam (Tivela stultorum), based on age-length data from commercial catches,» Sci. Mar., vol. 20, n.o 1, pp. 81-92, 1994. doi: https://doi.org/10.7773/cm.v20i1.952.
M. M. Tariq et al., «Comparisson of non-linear functions to describe the growth in mengali sheep breed of Balochistan,» Pak. J. Zool., vol. 45, n.o 3, pp. 661-665, 2013.
G. E. Box and D. R. Cox, «An analysis of transformations,» J. R. Stat. Soc., vol. 26, n.o 2, pp. 211-252, 1964.