Simulation and economic evaluation for the first thinning of Khaya ivorensis A. Chev.

Abstract

This research aimed to evaluate the economic viability of different scenarios for the first thinning in Khaya ivorensis monocultures and present an estimate of age and thinning intensity that provide a higher invested capital return. There were carried out 576 simulations considering different implementation and maintenance costs, ages for first thinning, thinning intensities, and recipes for standing wood sale. The Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) were calculated. The minimum price for standing wood, which all simulations were economically feasible, was 1 638 R$ m^-3 for 10% thinning intensity, from 819 R$ m^-3 to 20%, from 546 R$ m^-3 for 30%, and 410 R$ m^-3 for 40%. The simulations that maximized the NPV values were those with thinning prediction at five years of age. The percentage planning of thinned volume can be carried out by adopting economic criteria such as NPV and IRR. To obtain a return from the capital invested from the first thinning at five years of age, the percentage estimate from the thinned volume can be obtained according to the standing wood sale price for different minimum rates of attractiveness.