Diseño de un Modelo de Estimación de Retornos Ajustados por Riesgo para Actividades de Valoración en Mercados Emergentes (Design of a risk-adjusted rate of return model for the evaluation of projects and companies in Costa Rica)
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Abstract
El artículo explica un modelo ajustado para un mercado emergente que, a partir de la versión original del Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), permite la estimación de rendimientos esperados sobre los recursos propios (KE) para apoyar el cálculo del costo promedio ponderado de capital dentro de los procesos habituales de valoración de activos riesgosos, como es el caso del análisis de proyectos o empresas, situados en esos mercados. Para ello se toma como ejemplo de aplicación el caso costarricense. Sobre la base de la investigación realizada se logra crear un modelo dinámico y ajustado diseñado en hojas de cálculo, que permite la estimación de retornos exigidos por los socios a la realidad del mercado analizado, para gran cantidad de industrias y sujeto de sensibilización por parte de los usuarios finales de la herramienta teórico práctica.
ABSTRACT
This article presents an adjusted model for an emerging market, based on the original Capital Asset Pricing Model, that estimates the expected yield of own resources of supporting the calculation of capital weighted average cost, in the usual risky assets valuation processes, as is the case of the analysis of projects or companies on such a market, and applying it to a Costa Rican case. Based on the investigation, a dynamic custom model based in worksheets is created for several industries, that allow the estimate of the required returns by investing partners for the market under study, and is capable of sensitivity modification by its final users.
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